随着美中贸易摩擦升级，多家外媒和智库开始把目光转向了这场博弈的一个关键领域，稀土（rare earth）。
中国前不久宣布对7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制，外媒分析认为，这一举措可能给美国带来“重大打击”，并暴露出美国对中国稀土的依赖程度有多高。
China has now imposed export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and magnets， dealing a major blow to the US。
The move has laid bare how reliant America is on these minerals。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）称这是中国手中握有的一张有力王牌（a powerful card to play），是中国对美国拥有绝对优势的一个领域。
Unlike tariffs， it’s a front where Trump has little room to retaliate in kind。
和关税不同，在稀土领域，特朗普几无反击空间。
稀土有多重要？美国战略与国际问题研究中心（CSIS）的一份报告称，中国对重稀土的出口管控可能直接导致美国国防供应链中断，进而撼动美国国防工业的根基。
As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements， the US would be unable to fill a potential shortfall， according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies （CSIS） — and this could threaten Washington‘s military capabilities。
稀土何以成为中国的“王牌”？
稀土是17种化学元素的统称，广泛应用于智能手机、电动车、医疗设备及军事装备等高科技领域。尽管稀土在自然界储量丰富，但其提取难度高，因而稀有。
“Rare earths” are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that are crucial to the manufacture of many high-tech products。
Most are abundant in nature， but they are known as “rare” because it is very unusual to find them in a pure form， and they are very hazardous to extract。
中国在稀土领域的优势体现在资源和技术上。
国际能源机构的数据称，在2023年，中国的稀土资源产量占到了全世界的61%。更重要的是，中国掌握稀土分离核心技术，全球92%的精炼稀土都产自中国。
In 2023， China produced 61% of the world‘s raw magnet rare earth elements， which are essential in high-tech industries such as electronics， electric vehicles and defense。
Its dominance is even more pronounced in refining these materials， making up 92% of the global refined supply。
CNN称，数十年来，美国和其他国家都依赖中国供应这些加工后的稀土资源。
美国的依赖：从智能手机到F-35战机
今年，美国地质调查局的一份报告指出，2020至2023年间，美国70%的稀土化合物及金属进口依赖中国。
Between 2020 and 2023， the US relied on China for 70% of its imports of all rare earth compounds and metals， according to a US Geological Survey report this year。
更为关键的是，CSIS指出，美国目前无法分离重稀土，而重稀土正是国防工业的“命脉”。
从雷达到永磁材料，从F-35战机、“战斧”导弹到“捕食者”无人机，美国均依赖于重稀土。
According to the CSIS， this leaves the US particularly vulnerable as there is no capacity outside China to process heavy rare earths。
Heavy rare earths are used in many military fields such as missiles， radar， and permanent magnets。
A CSIS report notes that defence technologies including F-35 jets， Tomahawk missiles and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles all depend on these minerals。
CSIS报告直言，如果中国完全停止中重稀土元素的出口，那么美国“短期内是无力填平缺口的”。其国防工业将长期受制于人。
According to CSIS‘ report， if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports， the US will be incapable of filling the gap。
美国空军2022年承认，中国武器装备更新速度是美国的5至6倍，稀土限制可能进一步拉大这一差距。
The CSIS report cites an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the US， originating from a US Air Force official in 2022。
“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap， enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States，” the report concludes。
除了对美国军工国防的冲击，中国的出口管制还将推升稀土的价格，导致从智能手机到电动车的生产成本大幅增加。
“Manufacturers， particularly in defence and high-tech， face potential shortages and production delays due to halted shipments and limited inventories，” said Gavin Harper， a critical materials research fellow at the University of Birmingham。
“Prices for critical rare earth materials are expected to surge， increasing the immediate costs of components used in a wide range of products， from smartphones to military hardware，” he says， adding that this could result in potential production slowdowns for affected US companies。
美国的困境：供应链重建仍需数年
据外媒报道，目前美国拥有一座稀土矿，但其不具备分离重稀土的能力，稀土矿石需运往中国加工。
The US has one operational rare earths mine， but it does not have the capacity to separate heavy rare earths and has to send its ore to China for processing。
尽管特朗普政府已启动国内稀土供应链重建计划，但进展缓慢。
建立这样的产能不仅需要很长时间和持续大量的投资，而且即便美国能建好这样的产线，也根本不足够实现稀土的自给自足。
Since the first Trump administration， the US has been trying to play catch-up and build up its own domestic rare earths supply chain。
But those efforts will take years to meet the enormous demand from key US industries。
美国国防部自2020年起投入4.39亿美元建设稀土加工设施，但CSIS指出，这些设施最早要到2027年才能实现量产，且产能仍远低于中国。
外媒分析，这也是为什么特朗普急于同乌克兰签订矿产协定，同时觊觎着拥有世界第八大稀土储量的格陵兰。
This is largely believed to be part of why US President Donald Trump is so keen to sign a minerals deal with Ukraine - it wants to reduce dependency on China。
Another place Trump has had his eye on is Greenland — which is endowed with the eighth largest reserves of rare earth elements。
但CSIS的报告也指出，这两个地方资源的商业价值和开采难度，本身也存在大量疑问。
However， questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits。
对于中国的这一手牌，密歇根大学经济学与公共政策教授贾斯汀·沃尔弗斯评论称，是“精准打击，直击美国工业的痛处”。
他认为：“中国此举展现了其运用战略手段施展惊人经济实力的能力。”
“It‘s China showing that it can exert incredible economic might by being strategic … and surgical and really hitting American industry right where it hurts，” said Justin Wolfers， a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan。
来源：中国日报
